THESIS: options volatility engine

THE THESIS Options routinely trade away from fair value. Those gaps look like free money and usually aren't — the spread required to capture one is typically larger than the gap. Most strategies never verify this and bleed out slowly. THESIS treats verification as the primary task. AI LOGIC 1. CAPTURE — the full chain is paged off the wire and written to disk byte-for-byte, so any conclusion is re-derivable from exactly what the market said. 2. SURFACE — each expiry gets an SVI smile. Butterfly arbitrage isn't checked post-hoc; it's made structurally impossible inside the objective. Slices fit sequentially so calendar monotonicity is structural. Every fit carries a domain of validity; outside it the model declines to have an opinion. 3. DETECTION — a contract is dislocated when its price differs from the surface by more than the spread and fit error can jointly explain. Significance is measured in noise, not size. 4. STRUCTURE — each signal maps to a defined-risk vertical. The hedge leg must be tightly quoted AND on-model; otherwise a named refusal. RISK GATES Five vetoes: fit confidence · clean partner · measured cost (edge must clear 1.5x a $2.00 round trip, MEASURED by opening and closing a real spread) · wide-quote artifact (at high vega a $4 spread looks tight in vol and still costs $4) · risk-adjusted return. Beneath them, hard limits: per-trade cap, total open risk, concurrency, daily stop. Defined-risk only; max loss known before transmission. ALPACA Multi-leg option orders, trade-update WebSocket (the paper stream sends JSON in binary frames), snapshots/contracts with exhaustive pagination, and an MCP server exposing analyze surface, find_dislocations, check viability. Lifecycle proven live: open → fill → position → close → flat, zero residue. RESULTS Every layer states what it won't do and stops. The refusals are the product. github.com/Cademiller23/Thesis · account PA3XUA5XFEOO