MarginCalled — TP2 Options Arbitrage Agent

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Created by team Margincalled on September 03, 2026
Options Alpha Agents

MarginCalled does not predict the market. It looks for prices that cannot all be correct at once. Call prices must satisfy total positivity of order 2: for two expiries and two strikes, one product of prices must exceed another once strikes are forward-adjusted. Four contracts form a "rectangle". When the inequality fails on crossable quotes, the surface is internally inconsistent — not mispriced against a model, but provably inconsistent. The agent trades that and exits when it corrects. Every candidate passes an early-exercise theory gate before it can trade. TP2 is a theorem about European calls, so an American one only qualifies if early exercise is worthless — no dividend in the window, or a certificate from the source study. Crucially, an empty dividend list is not evidence of no dividend: anything past the provable horizon is marked unresolved and left alone. Survivors pass 16 deterministic risk gates, all evaluated with no early exit, including a re-test of the violation on fresh quotes immediately before the order goes out. Orders go over Alpaca's MCP server as multi-leg limits priced better than the indicative quote, so a bad quote produces a non-fill rather than a bad fill. Results: 192M rectangles scanned, 17,097 violations found, 43,566 episodes tracked to resolution. 98% reverted, median 11 minutes. Live, 21 round-trips — every one closed because its violation reverted, none on a timer. The account still lost $37, and that is the finding. The mispricing is worth ~2¢ and the bid-ask spread costs ~2¢, so execution decides the sign. An end-of-day study measuring mid-prices cannot discover this, because mid-prices are not tradeable. Every refusal is logged — 32,505 decisions with full evidence — and a language layer reads that log and explains them. It has no tools and cannot place an order

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