Underwrite-options agent to earn position size

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Created by team celabe on September 04, 2026

Every trading agent claims it manages risk. Underwrite measures whether its own claims are true and refuses to size up until they are. A Gemini strategist (Google ADK) sees the market only through Alpaca's MCP server, filtered to read-only tools. Each cycle it proposes one defined-risk options structure (bull put, bear call, iron condor, debit spread) with a stated probability of profit and the tool outputs it relied on, or declines. A deterministic gate re-quotes every leg through a separate client, recomputes max loss itself, and enforces the rules the write-up quotes: max loss ≤ 1% of equity, 7–45 DTE, bid/ask ≤ 15% of mid, open interest ≥ 100, one structure per underlying, four at most, liquid underlyings only. Exits are mechanical: take profit at 50% of credit, stop at 2× credit, close at 2 DTE. The executor places the multi-leg order through the MCP server's place_option_order; the server's reply is recorded verbatim as a claim. An auditor then asks the Alpaca CLI, a separate binary with its own HTTP client, what the account actually holds, and reconciles it. Claimed filled but not filled is a silent failure, and one silent failure freezes sizing at the floor. Position size is a function of measured calibration: Brier score and expected calibration error of stated probabilities against realised outcomes, reported-vs-verified claim accuracy, and silent-failure count. The budget unlocks from 0.25% to 1% of equity only after ten resolved structures with ECE ≤ 0.15, Brier ≤ 0.25 and 99% claim accuracy. During the hackathon the desk trades at the floor, and the published report says so rather than hiding it.

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