Beleth - Autonomous Options Risk DEMON

Beleth is an autonomous options-trading agent built for the Alpaca AI Trading Agents Hackathon. It runs a short vertical credit spread strategy — always defined-risk, single multi-leg orders, never naked legs — selling premium only when implied volatility is genuinely rich relative to realized risk (volatility risk premium, VRP). What makes Beleth different is what it refuses. Most trading bots only show you the wins. Beleth's public dashboard shows every cycle it runs, in real time, including the trades it chose NOT to take and exactly why — VRP too thin, an inverted term structure, a macro event on the calendar, an existing order still resting, VIX regime too extreme. On day one alone, 147 rejections were logged with full reasoning against a single trade taken. Under the hood, Beleth enforces eleven independent risk rules: minimum VRP threshold, term-structure and macro-event gates, defined-risk-only enforcement, profit-take/stop-loss exits (50% profit / 2x loss), position sizing capped at 1-2% of equity, a daily 3% drawdown circuit breaker, a linear size taper driven by 1-year VIX percentile (calibrated against 35 years of CBOE VIX history), anti-stacking protection against duplicate resting orders, and an aggregate portfolio-risk cap across all open exposure. Every check is logged and auditable. The stack: Python agent in Docker, LLM reasoning via LiteLLM (model-agnostic), Alpaca paper trading API, Supabase Postgres as the single source of truth, and a Next.js dashboard on Vercel reading live from it. A deploy guard even blocks redeploys while markets are open.