Lyceum — A Market of AI Minds

Lyceum is an autonomous AI options research and trading system built on Alpaca. Five specialized market agents independently analyze technical signals, options markets, news, and opposing market theses, producing probability distributions rather than simple BUY/SELL votes. Their uncertainty is quantified using entropy and Jensen–Shannon disagreement, while deterministic models evaluate market signals, volatility, liquidity, execution costs, and portfolio risk before any order can be submitted. Lyceum was tested across 33.58 years of SPY history, 361,000+ five-minute observations, and 9,600+ recent option observations. The research found statistically persistent market effects and predictable volatility—but also showed that predictability does not automatically create executable options alpha: for ordinary states, expected price movement was often far smaller than the cost hurdle imposed by option spreads and execution. That finding became part of the system itself. Lyceum defaults to NO_TRADE when expected economics do not justify risk, records decisions and rejected hypotheses for auditability, and uses fail-closed validation to prevent incomplete data from becoming trading evidence. AI proposes. Math validates. Alpaca executes.